The Verisimilitude of 2012

The Exit of Sarah Palin

Sometimes a six syllable word serves most adequately to describe a future event, in this case the state of the Republican Party candidates for the 2012 Presidential election - the quality of appearing to be true or real, not quite absolute certainty or veracity but the appearance thereof.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has a knack for sending shock waves through the public sector. First as the surprise running mate in John McCain’s unsuccessful bid for the White House and now her totally unexpected resignation as Governor of Alaska effective July 26. It was a decision she said that had been in the works for a while and was formally decided by a vote of family members in response to her question – “Hey, do you want me to make a positive difference and fight for all our children's future from outside the governor's office”? The answer was a unanimous yes.

Never one to follow conventional wisdom, Sarah Palin has succeeded by her energy, enthusiasm, and extraordinary charisma - a charisma that resonated among millions of Republicans and repelled in equal measure by millions of Democrats. Her “every woman” persona, unflinching conservative message, and good looks made her a lightning rod for the main stream media which attacked her with hysterical harassment, while she injected energy and enthusiasm into the otherwise moribund McCain campaign.

The rub against Mrs. Palin, since arriving on the national stage has been whether she is Presidential timber or even Vice Presidential timber. After the failed McCain campaign, many Republicans were left with the sense that a few years of seasoning and study would at least have a palliative effect on Gov. Palin’s viability as either a Vice President or Presidential candidate. On the other hand, the conundrum that is Sarah Palin hangs ominously - millions of Republicans consider her now an entirely felicitous Presidential candidate.

Back to Gov. Plain’s decision to resign as Governor of Alaska based on family pressures rather than not run for reelection, places into question a couple of important factors.

First, Harry Truman said it best “If you can’t stand the heat stay out of the kitchen”. Politics and particularly a political campaign is a bare knuckles brutal business that demands incredible fortitude to prevail. Given Mrs. Palin’s family situation (downs syndrome child and unwed daughter with an infant child) may understandably be too much for Gov. Palin to manage. Mrs. Palin also stated that she and her family have had enough of the “partisan sniping”. Who can forget the effective end of Edmund Muskie’s 1972 campaign for Democrat nominee for President while crying in a snow storm in New Hampshire - definitely not for the weak of heart or the thin of skin.

Secondly, perhaps collapsing under pressure from the family, Sarah Palin would have been well advised to complete her term as Governor, as Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney chose not to seek another term as he geared up for an unsuccessful 2008 presidential bid. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has announced he won't seek another term, giving him plenty of free time ahead of a potential 2012 bid. Should she launch a Presidential bid, the specter of quitting looms large over an already fragile inventory of qualifications.

So is this the exit of Sarah Palin from elected offices? Maybe so, maybe not. Surely she can earn a high six figure, perhaps seven figure income from a book, articles, talk radio, and speaking engagements with far less stress than campaigning for office. Remember Sarah Palin is just 46 years old, a veritable teenager in Presidential politics. One thing is for certain no one in the Republican Party, and for that matter in the Democrat party, save Barack Obama, has the charisma and devoted followers as Sarah Palin. Simply stated, as things now stand the 2012 Republican candidate for President, if not Sarah Palin, must have the endorsement of Sarah Palin to win the nomination and election.

The Republican Party Gestalt

Amid an American landscape that includes the highest number of unemployed in over five decades, the greatest debt in the history of the nation, the worst recession since the depression, a third world foreign policy, the exhuming of organized labor, the takeover of the auto industry, the control of banking, increased central planning and control, a stimulus plan that is clearly not working, ad infinitum, the Republican Party would appear to be poised to capture the Presidency in 2012.

Not so fast.

Several assumptions are required in order for Republican ascendency to occur in 2012.

First, the downward spiral of the United States economy into socialism and the attendant effects of the warp speed overreaching programs of the Obama administration must continue - a bitter and painful pill to swallow.

Next, the Republicans must regain seats in the 2010, without that momentum, a recapture of the White House in 2012 becomes almost impossible.

Finally, a true leader and spokesman for the Republican Party must emerge and espouse the core values of conservatism – family values (prolife, heterosexual marriage only, etc.), fiscal responsibility (budget, taxes, etc.), free market solutions, and formidable national defense. The hard part is, in spite of the nation being polled consistently as a center right body politic, the Republican Party seeks to move to the center and left, with the predictable results as seen in the failed McCain campaign.

Further complicating the Republican gestalt are the counterproductive group voices of the neo conservatives and the individual voices of Colin Powell, Tom Ridge, and a host of pseudo conservative writers including Christopher Buckley, who subtract rather than add to the Party’s efficacy. They are the donkey’s tail on the Republican elephant.

A particularly problematic component of the Republican Party apparatus is the National Republican Committee that has yet to develop a consistency in articulating content and strategy. Two prime examples are 1.) the painful process of watching Chairman Michael Steele’s desultory efforts to broaden the party, i.e. hip hop, Rush Limbaugh put down, and groveling apology to Rush Limbaugh and 2.) the NRC consistently endorsing moderate candidates such as Florida’s Gov. Charlie Chris over legitimate conservative candidates like Florida House Speaker Mario Rubio for the upcoming Senate race.

It’s no wonder then that the person considered to be voice of the Republican Party is Rush Limbaugh, without holding or seeking to hold a public office, his consistent conservative message resonates more widely among Republicans than any Republican politician. It’s important to note that Limbaugh was the one person considered most responsible for the success of the 1994 Republican revolution which captured both House and Senate majorities for the first time in forty years.

Likely 2012 Candidates

Before looking at the most likely Republican candidates in 2012, it’s helpful to reexamine human nature and the attraction of public office, particularly the most powerful position in the world as the leader of the free world. While our founding fathers cited the noble calling of public service and governance it carries with it a deeply personal opiate - power and adulation; very few, if any, are able to escape the seductive tentacles of this medusa like monster.

The abuses of power are well documented and certainly fresh on the minds of Republicans as documented in the extramarital affairs disclosed by two 2012 presidential prospects, Nevada Sen. John Ensign and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford. Scratch those two from the list.

The point is who is least likely, based on personal history to violate the sacrosanct trust between candidate and voters. Keeping this in mind, let’s look at the current leading candidates to throw their hats in the ring for 2012, in no particular order.

Newt Gingrich

One of the smartest of all potential candidates, well versed and articulate on all facets of policy who is running hard to stay in front of the public. A formidable combination of intellect and experience, the former Speaker of the House and Time Magazine Man of the Year, although on the right side of all major issues, Newt is not without serious baggage.

In eleven favorability ratings beginning in 1994, Newt has never had less than an 8 point deficit below his unfavorable perception. His latest rating in June shows a 46% unfavorable rating versus a 35% favorable rating. Gingrich lost a budget standoff with President Clinton, which may have contributed to Clinton's re-election in November 1996.

Newt has been married three times. He presented his first wife in the hospital recovering from cancer surgery a list of his plans for divorce that he wanted her to sign. In 1981, six months after his divorce was final, Gingrich married Marianne Ginther. He remained married to Ginther until 2000, when they divorced. Soon thereafter, Gingrich then married Callista Bisek, with whom he was having an extramarital affair during the same time he was leading the Congressional investigation into allegations that President Clinton lied under oath about his affair with Monica Lewinsky.

A Baptist since graduate school, Gingrich converted to Catholicism, his wife’s faith, in March this year.

In summary, Gingrich appears to be a man whose time has come and gone.

Mike Huckabee

Since the Presidential election, no potential Republican Presidential candidate has been in front of the public more than Mike Huckabee as author, Fox political commentator, Fox weekend show Huckabee, and ABC radio show, Mike Huckabee enjoys 7 days a week exposure.

Huckabee performed credibly in the Republican primaries before dropping out as a distant second to John McCain. It is important to note that Huckabee carried most of the southern states in the primaries while splitting the conservative vote with Romney.

As Arkansas Governor, Huckabee served two terms. In 2005, Time magazine named him one of the five best governors in the U.S., writing “Huckabee has approached his state’s troubles with energy and innovation”. Huckabee was accused of increasing state spending, as a “liberal in disguise” by 65.3%. The Arkansas Department of Finance states during Huckabee’s tenure, taxes were cut 95 times for a decrease of $378 M, while taxes were raised 21 times for an increase of $883 M.

The Cato Institute gave Huckabee an “F” for spending and tax policy in 2006. In 2007,Judicial Watch announced that Huckabee was named to its list of “Ten Most Corrupt Politicians”, as subject of 14 ethics complaints.

Although Huckabee is right on major issues, reservations exist about his Baptist preacher background and his departure from conservative fiscal policy as Governor of Arkansas. In two out of three polls, Huckabee is considered the frontrunner for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2012. A third national poll in June shows Huckabee a co-favorite as the Republican nominee along with Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney.

Opinions of Huckabee’s personality range from charming, engaging, and warm to thin skinned, vindictive, and self righteous.

Mitt Romney

Among the potential candidates, Romney’s combination of private and government experience make him appear the most presidential of all Republican aspirants. A Harvard Law School graduate, Romney enjoyed huge success in the management consulting and private equity business.

Specializing in leverage buyouts as head of the company for 14 years, the firm enjoyed an average annual internal rate of return of 113%. He invested in or bought companies such as Staples, Domino’s, Sealy Corporation, and Sports Authority.
In 1990, Romney was asked to return to a company that was facing financial collapse. As CEO Romney restructured the company and within a year returned the firm to profitability without layoffs or partner defections.

Romney headed the 2002 Winter Olympics and took it from a $379 M short of its revenue goals. After Romney’s hire in 1999, he revamped the organization’s leadership, policies, budget, and boosted fund raising. The Games ended clearing a profit of $100 M.

In 2003, as Massachusetts Governor, Romney faced a projected $1.2 B deficit and through spending cuts, increased fees, and removal of corporate tax loopholes the state had a $700 M surplus by 2006 and was able to cut taxes. Romney signed the Massachusetts health reform law which requires nearly all state residents to buy health insurance. The bill also establishes means tested state subsidies for people who do not have adequate employer insurance and who earn below an income threshold, by using funds previously designated to compensate for the health costs of the uninsured.

Romney won 11 states primaries and caucuses, 4.2 M votes and 291 delegates, although he would likely have won more had he not ended his campaign early. Romney decided not to seek donations to recover the $45 M in personal loans he made to his campaign. Instead, the loans were reclassified as contributions by Romney. The Romney committee raised approximately $65 M from individual donors during the primary campaign.

Romney and his wife have a net worth of between $250 and $500 M, not including his blind trust in the name of their children valued at $100 M.

In many respects Romney appears to be the ideal Republican nominee - he’s on the right side of all major issues, has a track record of success, and no hint of scandal or character issues. However, there are conservatives who question his pro-life conversion as politically motivated and perhaps even more who have reservations, particularly in the south, about his Mormon faith.

Tim Pawlenty

The 50 year old Governor of Minnesota, Tom Pawlenty has announced that he will not seek a third term as governor, opening speculation that he’s preparing for a run for the Republican nomination in 2012. Pawlenty served as co-chairman of the McCain for President campaign. Pawlenty served as chairman of the National Governors Association from 2007 to 2008.

So is this guy a moderate or a conservative, being from Minnesota and all? Well he passes the litmus test – pro-life, pro-gun, fiscally conservative, he’s a little light on immigration and is a strong ethanol proponent, remember this is the guy who succeeded Jesse Ventura as governor.

During his first year as governor, Pawlenty balanced a deficit of $4.3 B without raising taxes by reducing the rate of funding increases for state services, including transportation, social services, and welfare. In 2006, the State announced more than a $2 B budget surplus, not adjusted for inflation.

Pawlenty was raised Roman Catholic and converted to his wife’s Baptist faith.

Whether being ambitious and attractive are enough for Mr. Pawlenty to make waves in 2012 remains to be seen.

Bobby Jindal

Thirty nine year old wunderkind Bobby Jindal has a great deal going for him as the nation’s youngest governor for the state of Louisiana. Governor Jindal represents the finest tradition of the American success story.

Born Piyush Amrit Jindal in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the first son of Agarwal Indian immigrants, raised as a Hindu but converted to Catholicism in high school and gives his religious testimony before Baptist and Pentecostal congregations. Jindal graduated with honors from Brown University in Biology and Public Policy and went on to study at Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar receiving a degree in Political Science. After Oxford he was accepted to Harvard Medical School and Yale Law School, but decided to join McKinsey & Company as a consultant.

In 1999, Jindal was appointed President of the University of Louisiana System and in 2001 George W. Bush appointed Mr. Jindal Assistant Secretary of Health & Human Services for Planning & Evaluation. In 2004, Bobby Jindal was elected to the United States House of Representatives from Louisiana.

Bobby Jindal was sworn in as Governor in January of 2008. Later that year, Jindal oversaw one of the largest evacuations in U.S. history prior to the landfall of Hurricane Gustav. He successfully managed the evacuation from the state’s coastal areas and activated 3,000 National Guardsman to assist in the exodus that included vacating hospitals and nursing homes. The evacuation was credited as the primary reason so few lives were lost from Hurricane Gustav.

Bobby Jindal falls on the right side of all major issues and is an outspoken critic of the Stimulus plan and the money allocated to individual states putting him at odds with fellow Republican governors Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty and Florida’s Charlie Chris.

Clearly Bobby Jindal has a bright future, but a 2012 Republican nomination for President seems a bit soon, but 2016 is another matter.

Well, there you have it as the future appears now, but the admonition of Joseph Glanvill (1636-1680) is as valid today as in the 17th century, “Verisimilitude and opinion are an easy purchase; but true knowledge is dear and difficult”.